AUD/USD

well, lets take a look at this pair, Last night we had a move during the news that ran the AUD/USD up 50 pips or so, Capturing around 30 pips of that move, I cashed out and now looking at a possible reversal of the pair.

Criteria I am looking at;

1) next resistance is 8900/10 mark back in 1989.
2) to move from current to 500 more pips is possible, but fundementally not likely.
3) review fundementals on AUD and USD economies.

here is the current thoughts

support is 8374, from this year, a break back below the 8374 is a indication of a reversal, current 4hr is on a short possiblity for the move, that should run first, then look. if it breaks below the 8400 mark, then I will be looking for the Downward trend reversal with confirmation once breaking below 8374 support, if it stays above the 8400 and the 4hr gives me an entry, I will get into the trade and use the 20 EMA on the 4hr chart as a moving SL on my trade.

AUD Fundementals has been good to excellent
USD fundementals has been mixed

righ now the FXDA desktop is in wait mode till I get the oversold status on the 4hr chart.

NZD Interest rates

WELL NZD surprised everyone and increased the rates by .25 basis points, already the NZD/USD has gained 40-50 pips on the move; will this start another upward push for trending or does the economy and jitters on how MUCH the NZD can handle let this be a correction only?

7550 mark was a strong resistance and it has been broken, the question is whether it will be used as support now.

Watch the pair, we should see some movement long, but need to see this used as support for any further trending. also realize that we are at never before highs on the NZD/USD and that means a possible choppy road upwards.

Market Review - GBP/JPY

Large retracement on the 4hr chart down to the support of 241.65/75 mark, we had setup a support line there and it has held so far. from there the CCI and SCHAFF has trended to the bottom of the scales, with the upward momentum from the EMA's, It looks like a candidate for a 4hr Long trade style on the templates.

Day chart is still holding the lower trend line, with the CCI and SChaff heading back to the upper end of the scale, basically we broke out of the 241.65/70 level, and retested that as support.

Best thing about it , is once it returns to the upside, I will be looking for carry trade to stand for quite some time. as now we have a basis of support. Worst is that the support line dates back to 1992 levels.

Andy<> Stapleton
www.forexmgr.com